Zakat Counterflow to Unequal Exchange: Potential Redistribution of the World Economy, 1970–2022

Abstract

Using Hickel et al. (2022) study as the benchmark starting point for estimating cumulative appropriation, this paper constructs a reparative counterfactual that returns Northern-extracted value to the Global South and quantifies its implications for zakat-eligible wealth. Beginning from an empirically grounded aggregate potential-zakat benchmark ($12,577.74 bn, 1970–2022), we infer global cumulative GDP, apply a parsimonious North/South partition (60/40), and treat Hickel’s 24% Northern drain as a cumulative outflow to be re-attributed. Employing a Kahf-style macro proxy (2.5% zakat base) and allocating 35% of adjusted Southern GDP to ten selected Islamic countries, the counterfactual raises the bloc’s cumulative GDP from $533,601.09 bn to $725,697.48 bn (Δ = $192,096.39 bn) and its cumulative potential zakat from $1,760.88 bn to $2,394.80 bn (Δ = $633.92 bn), equivalent to ≈$3.62 trillion additional GDP and ≈$12.0 bn additional zakat per year (1970–2022). We examine three transmission channels: (1) autonomous non-state safety nets, (2) Islamic supply chains, and (3) world economy rebalances, assessing the institutional and jurisprudential implications, and situate the results within the sensitivity bounds for key parameters. Framed as a scenario exercise, we demonstrate how treating appropriation as a constitutive accounting variable materially enlarges the redistributive power of zakat in the world economy.